The Week That Was, march 22, 2015

     In what appears to be a quintessential win-win arrangement -- as well as a glimpse into the nature of “signature” golf course architecture -- Arnold Palmer has been commissioned to design his first golf course in Scotland. The 18-hole track will emerge at Castle Stuart Golf Links, a venue with a highly regarded 18-hole course that was co-designed by Gil Hanse and the property’s owner, Mark Parsinen. On its face, this is an unusual hire, because Palmer, who’s 85, really won’t be deeply engaged in the design process, which is in the hands of Parsinen and the associates in Palmer’s design firm, Brandon Johnson and Thad Layton. Heck, at first blush it’s hard to figure why Parsinen needs a “signature” architect at all, seeing as how he has two co-designs ranked on Golf Digest’s top 100 outside the United States -- the first course at Castle Stuart (#38) and Kingsbarns Golf Links in St. Andrews (#34) -- while Palmer’s firm has just one, Tralee Golf Course in County Kerry, Ireland (#82). So why did Parsinen select Palmer for this high-profile job? According to Golfweek, Palmer’s company “has become an equity partner” in Parsinen’s development group and will “fund the second course.” Long live the King.

     Taking its public-relations cues from Bill Cosby and corrupt politicians everywhere, the National Golf Foundation has begun to blame the media for our industry’s lingering financial troubles.
     In its latest report on the state of recreational golf, the trade group contends that the hole we’re in was dug by “multiple media outlets” disseminating “gloomy scenarios” and “sensational negative perceptions.” Sadly, the truth is that the “negative perceptions” were created by the NGF’s own data. And though our foremost booster group will profess its innocence, it’s also true that some of our industry’s worst problems -- in particular, those caused by overbuilding -- were caused by the NGF itself.
     Not surprisingly, the NGF wants to tell a more upbeat story about golf’s present situation and its future prospects. “All things considered,” it writes, “2014 may well be remembered as the year golf found its post-recession footing and turned a corner toward a future at least a little brighter than its recent past.”
     That’s supposed to be a hopeful statement, but it’s full of qualifiers and unfortunately echoes comments that were made by many industry observers in 2012 and 2013, when it was widely believed that our industry had bottomed out. Clearly, it takes a long time to turn a corner when the road is pockmarked with declines in play by every one of our most important demographic groups.
     But let’s not dwell on negative perceptions. Our future is “at least a little brighter,” as the NGF puts it, thanks to “positive economic indicators, stabilization in participation and rounds played, an increase in weather-adjusted utilization, and the return of private equity funding to the industry.”
     In a nutshell, that’s the NGF’s response to all the nattering nabobs of negativism in the media. So it behooves those of us in golf to examine the NGF’s analysis carefully.
     Regarding those “positive economic indicators”: The upturn in the U.S. economy (combined with beneficial tax policies, a soaring stock market, and other factors), has been helping to enrich golf’s most dependable customers -- wealthy white families -- for several years. At the same time, however, the golf industry’s own economic indicators have continued to erode. The rising tide isn’t giving us the lift we need, and that ought to be concerning to everyone reading this blog. To put a twist on Bill Clinton’s campaign motto: It’s not the economy, stupid.
     To assuage our fears about the 1.7 percent decline in the number of rounds played last year, the NGF has taken to describing the state of our industry as “stabilization.” For most people, stabilization suggests a condition that’s neither rising nor falling. For the NGF, however, it means that our declines aren’t as severe as they used to be. But make no mistake: The word stabilization should not be confused with the word growth.
     In another hopeful comment, the NGF says that recreational golf has seen “an increase in weather-adjusted utilization.” Regrettably, the increase is virtually insignificant: 1 percent.
     The NGF also heralds “the return of private equity funding” as a harbinger of good times. While Wall Street’s interest in our business may reflect what the NGF calls “a bullish attitude toward golf by savvy investment groups,” in the long run these carpetbaggers, swooping in like vultures to buy distressed golf properties at pennies on the dollar, aren’t good for golf.
     By and large, private equity groups don’t intend to have an extended relationship with our business. They aren’t operators. They make no commitments. They simply desire to acquire undervalued properties, spiff them up, and then sell them. Their goal is to make money for their investors, not to make the golf industry more viable. If they had to choose between doing the right thing for golf or making a larger profit, we all know what they’d choose. Their business model boils down to Slam, Bam, Thank You, Ma’am.
     All this brings us to course closings, which objective observers typically view as evidence of a problem but which the NGF considers to be “part of a positive trend,” a “natural correction in total course supply” that must continue if our business is to create “a healthier balance between supply and demand.”
     Although the NGF can fairly say that our nation has too many golf courses, it can also be fairly said that our nation doesn’t have enough golfers. Here’s the rub: By arguing so forcefully about the positive impact of course closings, the NGF is tacitly acknowledging that it can’t solve the participation problem.
     Also, it never hurts to mention that course closings are “a positive trend” only for the venues that are spared execution, and that the facilities being lost, as the NGF’s data indicates, are mostly those that cater to beginners, retirees, and others who can’t afford to join a private club or justify shelling out $75 or more for an afternoon of golf. By closing the door to these people, we make golf less relevant to society at large and miss valuable opportunities to grow the game.
     Our industry leaders constantly insist that the prevailing image of golf, as a sport for rich white men, is utterly and completely false. But let’s play out the string: If we continue to lose a hundred or more blue-collar courses every year, as the NGF believes we must, what exactly will our business look like?
     Goodness knows, all of us in golf need reasons to be optimistic. Let’s hope that the NGF can soon give us some.

     Gary Player has agreed to create the first championship-standard layout in the Republic of Congo. The South Carolina-based “signature” architect has been inked to create Golf du Kintélé, an 18-hole course in a northeastern suburb of Brazzaville, the nation’s capital. According to a press release, Player’s unnamed client aims to give the area’s golfers “a world-class golf experience” on “a strategic and playable course for all levels,” and Scott Ferrell, the president of Player’s design firm, has promised to deliver “a fantastic course that will raise playing standards in the Congo and continue to promote the game throughout Africa.” Those goals appear to be easily achievable, for Golf du Kintélé will almost certainly be the Congo’s top-rated venue from the minute it opens. Today the former French colony has just one 18-hole course and only five in total, according to Golf Digest, and the only existing venue in the Brazzaville area is a non-descript nine-hole track south of the city.

     Some information in the preceding post first appeared in the March 2015 issue of the World Edition of the Golf Course Report.

     Looking for a place where there won’t be any golf development in the foreseeable future? Try California. The state, now officially in its fourth year of drought, is said to have only about a year’s worth of water in its reservoirs, and its groundwater is disappearing fast. “As difficult as it may be to face,” writes Jay Famiglietti, a water scientist for NASA, “the simple fact is that California is running out of water.” Given the severity of the problem, it’s hard to imagine a thirsty community allocating vast amounts of water for sports instead of farming.

     If it’s true that you should never believe anything until it has been officially denied, then it appears certain that the European Tour is on the verge of a merger with its counterpart in Oceania. The denial has been issued by the PGA Tour of Australasia, in response to a report by the Daily Mail, a British newspaper, indicating that “negotiations have reached an advanced stage” for “some sort of merger.” The PGA Tour of Australasia insists that it’s only discussing “potential co-sanctioning agreements” with the European Tour.