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Sunday, May 27, 2018

The Week That Was, may 27, 2018

     Last week, an analyst on CNBC bashed the Gap, the slumping international retail chain. In particular, he noted that the company’s stock is nowadays trading at the same price it sold for in 2000, and he suggested that only a fool would invest in an enterprise that hasn’t made any progress for nearly two decades.
     Which brings us to Joe Beditz, the president of the National Golf Foundation, who proclaimed in a recent commentary that these days golf “looks much like it did 20 to 25 years ago,” with a comparable number of facilities (close to 15,000), a comparable number of golfers (roughly 24 million), and a comparable number of annual rounds played (about 450 million). In other words, it’s a business that hasn’t made any progress for a generation.
     But Beditz is the NGF’s chief salesperson, so he needs to sell potential investors (not to mention the industry’s rank and file) on the future of golf. The thing is, he’s doing it with suspect data.
     Citing statistics from the NGF’s new “Golf Industry Report,” Beditz acknowledges that the number of golfers in the United States has dipped to 23.8 million, but he tries to shift our focus to the 8.3 million people who last year played a version of “off-course” golf such as Topgolf. By combining traditional golf’s declining number with pseudo-golf’s increasing number, he happily touts 32 million as “the game’s overall participant pool.”
     This number sounds good, certainly better than 23.8 million, but it’s an illusion. Its existence is tied to another doubtful claim, namely the one about the pipeline of players that will inevitably come to golf as a result of “latent demand.” Suffice to say that the NGF has been peddling the importance of “latent demand” for years, and participation continues to wane. In the corridors of the NGF, hope springs eternal.
     For years now, in an attempt to gloss over golf’s problems, the NGF has engaged in what might be called imaginative thinking. This is a dangerous strategy for an industry leader, because a person’s imagination can be stretched only so far before it snaps.

     The key takeaways from the National Golf Foundation’s freshly published “Golf Industry Report”:
       – The NGF counted 23.8 million golfers in 2017, a number that the Jupiter, Florida-based trade group believes will serve as “a new support level” over the near term. It’s worth noting that the United States had 30 million golfers in 2005 and that in 2010 the NGF predicted that the number would reach 30 million again by 2020.
      – The number of rounds played in the United States last year fell by 2.7 percent, to 456 million. For context, our nation’s owners and operators rang up 518 million rounds in 2000. The NGF suggests that more rounds would’ve been played in 2017 if the weather had been better.
      – The pace of new construction continues to limp along, but the pace of closures remains strong. The NGF reports that just 15.5 “18-hole-equivalent” courses opened last year, while our nation lost 205.5 “18-hole-equivalent” courses. After crunching the data, it was determined that in 2017 the total number of U.S. golf facilities fell by 1.5 percent. The NGF views the reduction in supply as “a natural economic response” to “a competitive and over-supplied environment” and predicts that the shrinkage will persist “for several more years.” In 2018, it expects that our industry will lose roughly 150 additional “18-hole-equivalent” courses.
      – As of year-end 2017, the United States was home to 14,794 golf facilities – 45 percent of the world’s total supply.

     Golf development is still going like gangbusters in Vietnam, but the nation’s golf operations appear to be a different story altogether. According to Voice of Vietnam, a top official of the Vietnam Economics Institute fears that the socialist republic’s golf business will struggle because golf courses “don’t bring high profits, as it is very difficult to attract players.” Echoing that sentiment, the Ministry of Planning & Investment concedes that some Vietnamese golf venues “have been unprofitable” – a significant acknowledgment, because last year the ministry proposed to change the legislation that regulates the number of golf courses that can be built in Vietnam through 2020. As things currently stand, Vietnam can have 96 operational courses by then, a number that some say isn’t enough.

     An update on the future of Concert Golf Partners, which has agreed to sell 16 of its 18 golf properties to ClubCorp. The properties that Concert intends to keep are Fountains Country Club in Lake Worth, Florida and Muttontown Club in East Norwich, New York. In a text message, Peter Nanula of Concert writes that he’s holding on to those two because they were “recently acquired.”

     Duly Noted – The unfortunate, racially charged incident that occurred last month at Grandview Golf Club has become the subject of an investigation by the Pennsylvania Human Relations Commission. I’m still waiting for one of golf’s institutional leaders to say publicly that discrimination of any kind, whether intended or not, doesn’t reflect golf’s values. . . . In his latest financial disclosure, the U.S. president acknowledged that his Doonbeg resort, in County Clare, Ireland, generated just over $14 million in what was described as “golf-related income” last year. He believes the property is worth between $25 million and $50 million. . . . As if losing his golf resort in Shropshire, England isn’t punishment enough, KK Downing is being forced to sell a share of the royalty rights he earned for 136 songs recorded by Judas Priest.

Sunday, May 13, 2018

The Week That Was, may 13, 2018

     An emerging mega-city in Saudi Arabia has opened its first golf course, an 18-hole track that’s already been touted as the nation’s number-one venue. (Not that the competition is particularly strong.) The course has been designed by Dave Sampson of European Golf Design, and it’s among the featured attractions at King Abdullah Economic City, which is taking shape on a 67-square-mile expanse of desert – a tract roughly the size of Washington, DC – just south of Rabigh, on the Red Sea coast. The Saudi government expects KAEC to become “one of the most important cities” in the world and set a standard for the kingdom’s future. EGD, a British firm that’s best known for its work with “signature” designers, has promised that the track will “embrace the classic strategic elements of the world’s most enduring golf courses,” offer “risk-and-reward choices and opportunities for creative and varied shot making,” and be “challenging, fair, and enjoyable for golfers of all ability.” If KAEC adheres to its master plan, Sampson’s track will eventually be complemented by at least one more 18-hole track.

     Some information in the preceding post first appeared in the June 2014 issue of the World Edition of the Golf Course Report.

     Pipeline Overflow – Greg Norman has convinced elected officials in Vallejo, California that he can turn their Blue Rock Springs golf complex into “a destination” that will “attract golfers from around the world.” If the revitalization project proceeds, “the Living Brand” will reduce the 36-hole venue to 18 regulation-length holes with a short, youth-focused “Shark Bites” track. . . . Some details have emerged on one of the golf ventures that Chinese developers plan to build in Pakistan as part of the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor. It’s a gated, “timeless” community called China Pak Golf Estates that will occupy more than 150 acres in Gwadar, a port city on the Arabian Sea, and set “a new standard to master community development in Pakistan.” The Chinese entity is an affiliate of China Railway Construction Corporation, a major power in international construction circles, which is said to be collaborating with a British company. . . . Cambria Green, the massive forthcoming golf community on Tasmania’s eastern coast, is targeting not just wealthy Chinese travelers but terminally ill ones. The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Cambria Green will be “a nature-based, peaceful environment” that offers palliative care for people who desire “to see something beautiful before they die.”

     Change has come to an ancient New England club that professes to offer “the illusion of changelessness.” Agawam Hunt, a debt-ridden venue that’s operated in suburban Providence, Rhode Island since before the dawn of the 20th century, has been sold to a group of longtime members who believe they’ve forever protected “an oasis in the city.” The sale was completed roughly a year after Agawam Hunt was forced to declare for bankruptcy protection, and it comes largely because the state’s Nature Conservancy was persuaded to pony up $2 million for development rights to roughly two-thirds of the club’s 130 acres. The contribution will likely to fully protect Agawam Hunt’s 18-hole, Donald Ross-designed golf course, but if it doesn’t, the conservancy has an option to purchase development rights to the rest of the property as well. The partners’ primary goal, according to an official of the conservancy, is to have “a viable golf course” that “benefits the environment.” They also hope that their alliance can serve as a model for other struggling clubs that are looking for an economic lifeline.

     Surplus Transactions – Mark Lovell’s Golf Nation LLC has accepted an offer for Stonebridge Golf Club, which made its debut in suburban Memphis, Tennessee in 1972. Grace Construction Company has suggested that it won’t continue golf operations at Stonebridge, which most likely means that the end is near for the club’s 18-hole, George Cobb-designed golf course. . . . Geoffrey Van Epps has agreed to sell Hiawatha Trails Golf Course, acknowledging to a local newspaper that the 60-year-old track is “not economically feasible anymore.” A developer is seeking permission to build apartments and office space on the 18-hole, executive-length track in Guilderland, New York. . . . “It would take a miracle” for Tamaron Golf Course to open this year, its new owner recently told the Toledo Blade. Drewso Ltd. took control of Tamaron earlier this year, and it’s already negotiating to sell nine of the course’s holes to a home builder. The course, which has been around since the mid 1920s, may operate with nine holes in the future, but that’s a best-case scenario.

     Still More Surplus Transactions – For the second time since 2014, the 18-hole, Ed Ault-designed layout in Townsend, Tennessee has a new owner. John Trotter has given Laurel Valley Golf Course a new name, Wild Laurel Golf Course, but the 28-year-old venue has a visibility problem. Specifically, according to a course manager, “a lot of people don’t know it exists” because it’s “off the beaten path.” . . . Dennis Stange, an insurance man in suburban Buffalo, New York, has paid $350,000 for Shawnee Golf Course. The nine-hole track, which was previously known as Shawnee Country Club, opened in 1965 and has been described as “one of Niagara County’s oldest privately owned but public golf courses.” . . . It’s getting to be old news, but last summer Andre Liloc bought the self-described “Best Kept Secret on the Oregon Coast,” an 18-hole venue that has over the years operated as Watson Ranch Golf Course and Coos Country Club. The place is now called Coos Golf Club, but it still features nine holes designed by H. Chandler Egan (they opened in 1923) and nine by Bill Robinson (1998). For what it’s worth, Liloc formerly worked for Amazon and ESPN, according to his LinkedIn profile.

     Duly Noted – The site for Olympic golf in 2020, Japan’s formerly all-male Kasumigaseki Country Club, found three women worthy of membership, as long as they don’t show too much leg. . . . Zach Peed of Dormie Network is following through on his promise to add housing at both Ballyhack and Arbor Links. . . . Golf Advisor has identified what it believes are Greg Norman’s 10 best courses in North America.

Sunday, May 6, 2018

The Week That Was, may 6, 2018

     In the culmination of what’s been called a “three-year wind down,” Lee Schmidt has retired and no longer works for the design firm he co-founded more than two decades ago. Schmidt-Curley Golf Design is now fully in the hands of Brian Curley, who reports via text that the firm’s name will change “at some point,” though the process of doing so is “very complicated.” Whatever it ends up being called, though, the Paradise Valley, Arizona-based firm is almost certain to remain a major force in golf, as Curley is a tireless and effective marketer. The firm’s gushing pipeline in China no longer flows, but Curley says that he currently has “a bunch of work” in Vietnam and Thailand. Schmidt, who’s 70, apprenticed with Pete Dye and Nicklaus Design, and he met Curley during his stint at Landmark Land Design. He didn’t respond to a message, but it appears that he may on occasion take on some solo work.

     One of the club industry’s most coveted venues has found its new owner.
     Benjamin Franklin duPont and Don Wirth have signed what’s said to be “a binding letter of intent” to purchase DuPont Country Club, a nearly century-old venue in Wilmington, Delaware that’s seen better days but is generally regarded as having potential. They hope to “protect the legacy” of the 525-acre spread and establish it as “a state-of-the-art, affordable, and family-focused club.”
     The club went on the market about a year ago, after publicly traded E. I. du Pont de Nemours & Company was pressured into selling under-performing assets. The property attracted offers from what Jeff Woolson of CBRE’s Golf & Resort Group, which facilitated the transaction, characterizes as “a good collection of national and local bidders.” The identities of the bidders are being kept secret, but Concert Golf Partners was among them, and it’s widely believed that ClubCorp was another. “There was a lot of national interest,” Woolson acknowledges.
     DuPont features a 113,000-square-foot clubhouse, more than two dozen tennis courts, and three 18-hole golf courses. As part of the transaction, duPont and Wirth will also acquire the adjacent Brantwyn Estate, which hosts weddings and social events.
     The prospective buyers, both longtime club members, haven’t revealed what they’ve agreed to pay for DuPont, but they’ve announced that they intend to invest an additional $18 million into capital improvements – an indication of the property’s woeful condition.
     “The club needs a lot of capital improvements to be competitive in the marketplace,” Woolson notes.
     In particular, duPont and Wirth aim to completely overhaul the clubhouse, with improved wi-fi and tastier food, make overdue improvements to the golf courses, and add amenities that a state-of-the-art, family-focused club must have to attract members nowadays, namely swimming pools, a fitness center, and a golf practice center. They’re hoping to turn DuPont into a “lifestyle” property, a concept that’s all the rage in the club industry these days. This is an increasingly well-worn path to profitability that was originally beaten by Concert, ClubCorp, Arcis Golf and other deep-pocketed owner/operators.
     The trouble is, I don’t recall Concert, ClubCorp, and Arcis ever spending a veritable king’s ransom – $18 million – on capital improvements to a single club. It’s likely that the prospective owners’ initial outlay will amount to $25 million or more, and that’s before they spend a nickel on salaries, day-to-day maintenance, marketing, all the other expenses that a well-functioning club regularly has to cover.
     In other words, “lifestyle” investments can add up quickly, and as a result they’re accompanied by significant risks. DuPont and Wirth believe that their investment will pay dividends in the form of new members, and they can cite as evidence a string of previous successes elsewhere in America. But nobody can accurately measure the depth of the market for “lifestyle” clubs, especially in an area of the country where there are plenty of attractive options to choose from.
     What’s more, the fresh face that duPont and Wirth plan to put on DuPont will, from the get-go, burden the club with debt that could be difficult to discharge. They’re hoping to double the club’s membership, from 1,750 to 3,500, with “affordable” initiation fees and monthly dues, but pricing is a tricky business for private clubs. Inevitably, pricing is entangled not only with a club’s image but with the image that its members have of themselves. America’s most desirable clubs tend to be aspirational, not affordable.
     All this begs an obvious question: Did the prospective owners overpay? It’s a question that DuPont’s other bidders can’t wait to see answered.

     Robert Trent Jones, Jr.’s first golf course in Vietnam is scheduled to open next year, and its developers have begun to talk about building another. Jones’ 18-hole layout will be a featured attraction for Hoiana, a 2,500-acre waterfront spread south of Đà Nẵng that aims to set “a new benchmark for high-end tourism in Vietnam” and become one of “Asia’s most renowned resort destinations.” Hồ Chí Minh City-based VinaCapital, one of the nation’s best-known golf developers, has master-planned the community to include houses, hotels, entertainment venues, and various other attractions designed to attract vacationers, including a second 18-hole track. VinaCapital hopes to open the course by 2023, though it hasn’t yet announced a designer.

     Pipeline Overflow – A group of investors from China, Hong Kong, and Australia have secured a green light for Cambria Green, a massive (7,960 acres) mega-community that’s to take shape along the eastern coast of Tasmania. The community will feature houses, a hotel, retail and commercial areas, a medical center, an airstrip, and a 27-hole golf complex to be co-designed by Neil Crafter and Paul Mogford. . . . It hasn’t really been discussed for several years, but Darius Oliver recently advised his readers to “keep an eye on” the “potential third course at Barnbougle Dunes.” The publisher of Planet Golf provided no other details, so let me note that Richard Sattler, the owner of the world-famous destination on Tasmania’s northeastern coast, long ago asked Bill Coore to create course number three, a par-3 track that was dubbed “Little Mike.” . . . Brian Curley is a keen observer of the hottest trends in golf architecture, and he’s adept at capitalizing upon them. To wit: The head of Schmidt-Curley Golf Design is currently putting the finishing touches on the first two golf courses at FLC Đồng Hới Golf Links in Vietnam, a venue that he views as “the Streamsong of Asia.”

     Duly Noted – Because high-income urban- and suburban-ites are now more willing than ever to travel farther from home for rest and relaxation, Crain’s Chicago Business has concluded that regional golf resorts “are facing an existential reckoning.” . . . It’s not a final decision, but the state of New Jersey has rejected Paul Fireman’s proposal to expand the footprint of Liberty National Golf Club. . . . Topgolf is taking yet another bite of a traditional golf venue. The victim this time is Ala Wai Golf Course, a municipal track in Honolulu, Hawaii.