Vital Signs, october 24, 2014

     Has Donald Trump been exaggerating the number of rounds that are played at his golf venue in Aberdeenshire, Scotland? In an interview with Golf Digest, Trump asserted that the resort’s Martin Hawtree-designed course is not only “full” but “doing record business” -- so busy, in fact, that he “can’t get friends of mine on the course.” To verify, in late July -- during the height of the golf season -- the magazine’s interviewer called Trump International Golf Links Scotland and discovered that “there were plenty of tee times available from the following day onward.” Clearly, these accounts don’t add up. So who’s kidding who?

     Speaking of Donald Trump, will his forthcoming golf courses in Dubai be among the last to be built in the emirate? Every golf market eventually maxes out, and the head of KPMG’s Golf Advisory Practice believes that Dubai may reach its natural limit sooner rather than later. “I honestly don’t think there will be as many [courses built in Dubai] as has been mentioned,” Andrea Sartori told Arabian Business. “I think realistically you might be able to see another three golf courses, four golf courses, in the next three years. You wouldn’t imagine seeing many, many coming onto the market.” Trump expects to open his first track in Dubai next year, and construction will soon commence on his second. More than most developers, he understands that more isn’t necessarily merrier.

     As part of an effort to lure tourists, Sri Lanka is hoping to become a hot spot for golf development. The island nation currently has just four 18-hole courses, according to the Daily Financial Times, but by 2020, with government-sponsored incentives, it hopes to entice private interests to build as many as 16 more. With a bevy of world-class properties, Sri Lanka’s tourism officials believe that vacationing golfers from Japan, China, and other Asian nations would be ripe for the picking.

     Lots of U.S. golf markets are overbuilt, but the financial squeeze is being felt acutely in Cincinnati, Ohio. Four golf properties in the metropolitan area have closed over the past year, which is, according to the Cincinnati Business Courier, more than the three that were lost during the entire prior decade. “I don’t see anyone building a new golf course in the Tri-State for a very long time,” a local course owner told the Courier. It’s virtually certain that the failed golf courses will eventually be replaced by subdivisions.

     The U.S. population may be aging, but it isn’t aging as quickly as the U.S. golf population. “From 1996 through last year, the average age of a hotel guest rose by roughly a year, to 46,” writes the New York Times, citing figures provided by D. K. Shifflet & Associates. “During the same period, the average age of a hotel guest who played golf went up by two and a half years, to roughly 49.” And here’s more evidence of how youth is wasted on the young: Last year, only 22 percent of the young people (those under 33) who vacationed at resorts took time out to play golf.

     The National Golf Foundation has submitted its tally of golf properties in China. According to the Jupiter, Florida-based trade group, the People’s Republic has 465 golf properties with a total of 700 courses. If you’re wondering, the NGF’s count is consistent with other reliable data regarding China’s golf industry.