Vital Signs, january 17, 2014

     The supply of U.S. golf properties continued to shrink in 2013, as waning demand led to a net loss of 143.5 courses. The national inventory has fallen for eight consecutive years, according to the National Golf Foundation, which in 2013 counted just 14 openings as opposed to 157.5 closings. (The trade group counts a nine-hole layout as half of a whole golf course.) The NGF calls the declines “a gradual, natural market correction” and predicts that our nation will lose between 130 and 160 courses annually “for the next few years.” As in years past, the dearly departed in 2013 were overwhelmingly (97 percent) public tracks, two-thirds of which charged less than $40 a round. In all, says the NGF, the United States has lost 643 “18-hole equivalent” courses since 2006. The current total stands at either 14,564.5 or 14,679.5, depending on which of the NGF’s numbers one uses.

     Are good times having a damaging effect on Thailand’s golf business? In early 2013, Golfasian predicted that Thailand would surpass Spain as the world's most popular golf vacation destination in 2015 or 2016, provided that the nation maintained the pace of growth it’s established of late. Today, a contributor to the tour operator’s website acknowledges, “I doubt that this will ever happen.” The contributor, who appears to be the company’s principal, Mark Siegel, blames the problem on fast-increasing greens fees (“even an average course in the Kingdom can cost $100 a round”), overcrowded golf courses, and a shortage of quality caddies. “While golf in Thailand is still an experience to remember for a lifetime,” the contributor writes, “there are clear signs that the sensational growth in golf tourism may slow or, worse, hit a brick wall soon.”

     Abu Dhabi continues to score with international travelers, as last year the emirate’s half-dozen (or maybe seven) golf courses rang up a 49 percent increase in the number of “overseas” rounds played compared to 2012. The Abu Dhabi Tourism & Culture Authority didn’t reveal the actual numbers, probably because they aren’t very large. The emirate’s championship-caliber venues -- particularly Abu Dhabi Golf Club, Saadiyat Beach Golf Club, and Yas Links -- certainly deserve much of the credit for generating traffic, but don’t overlook the contributions made by the nearly 400 tour operators who promote, package, and book golf holidays in the Middle East. Abu Dhabi has a lot of salespeople working on its behalf.

     What keeps the operators of British golf clubs from getting a good night’s sleep? They worry most about slow play, shrinking memberships, and the weather, according to a survey by Sky Sports News. An overwhelming number of the more than 250 clubs that responded to the survey -- 94 percent -- complained about the time required to play an average round, while 70 percent reported that they’ve lost members over the past five years, particularly among juniors and women. In addition, 71 percent of the respondents say they’ve lost at least 15 days of play over the past three years due to lousy weather, and 37 percent say they’ve lost more than 31 days. Another cause for concern: 81 percent of the clubs noted that their members are predominantly people older than 51.

     Wealthy Americans may not yet be writing checks to private golf clubs, but they’re signing on the dotted line for luxury auto dealers. Maserati, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar, Lamborghini, Porsche, and Bentley all posted double-digit sales increases last year -- further evidence that the nation’s high rollers have put the Great Recession in their rear-view mirrors. “Luxury is not a dirty word anymore,” an automotive consultant for the Robb Report opined to the New York Times. So why do under-subscribed private clubs still believe that their prime prospects don’t have a lot of disposable income?

     Is Bali about to become a victim of its own success? Over the past decade, as memories of terrorist bombings have faded, vacationers have returned to the island and developers have responded by building a parade of hotels, shopping areas, meeting space, and golf courses. The result: Wall-to-wall congestion, numbing commercialism, and traffic jams. “Many tourists complain about the current condition of Bali,” a top tourism official said in a comment published by Hotel Chatter. “Too many buildings make them feel uncomfortable, as it is too crowded. Buildings are everywhere, and it is hard to find green areas.” As a consequence, a tourism-industry group wants local governments to impose a moratorium on hotel construction, an idea resisted by business interests. The moral of the story: Yes, you can have too much of a good thing. Sometimes, less really is more.

     New Zealand, a nation with roughly 400 golf courses, is fast becoming a favorite destination for Chinese travelers. More than 236,000 tourists from the People’s Republic visited New Zealand during the first nine months of last year, a 50 percent increase from the number posted in 2012. According to Reuters, the Kiwi government believes that the number will reach 1 million by 2015.