The Week That Was, june 16, 2013

     The numbers have been crunched, and they confirm what we expected: The number of rounds played at U.S. golf properties has fallen by 15.1 percent through the first four months of this year. Only one region of the nation, the Pacific states (California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington), has so far been able to record a gain (3.2 percent). The declines were worst in the West North Central states (down by 52 percent), the East North Central states (down by 47 percent), and the Mid Atlantic states (down by 30 percent). The National Golf Rounds Played Report has also determined that the number of rounds played at private facilities so far this year is off by 18.2 percent, while the number played at public tracks is off by 14.2 percent.

     The population of white Americans has officially begun to shrink, a fact that has vast implications for the future of the golf business. During the year ending on July 1, 2012, in what the New York Times calls “a benchmark that heralds profound demographic change,” more white Americans died than were born. What’s more, the population decline among whites won’t be reversed, because these days the majority of U.S. children are being born to Hispanic, black, and Asian mothers. As a result of all this, the Times concludes, “white Americans will become a minority nationwide within about three decades.” The handwriting is therefore on the wall: Our ever-smaller industry’s bread-and-butter demographic won’t be able to carry us for very much longer. If our industry expects to thrive in the years to come, we have only two choices: We can make a diligent effort to attract the minorities we’ve heretofore shunned (as well as women and children), or we can begin to import white people from nations with a penchant for golf. The sensible choice seems obvious.

     The United States Golf Association expects to lose $10 million on this year’s U.S. Open. The amount was reported by an anonymous source to Bloomberg Businessweek, which credits the loss to space-related limits on ticket sales at Merion Golf Club and a resulting decline in revenues from concessions and merchandise. This news needs to be digested with a grain of salt, however, because the USGA is collecting interest on $274 million in reserves. The group may be not be thrilled about the bottom line at this year’s U.S. Open, but it’s crying all the way to the bank.

     Last Sunday I reported that Mike DeVries, an architect whose career has so far flown under the average golfer’s radar, may be on the cusp of design stardom. What I didn’t know until just days ago is that, in order to keep his wits about him as he oversees the construction of King Island Links, he’s engaged in what will henceforth be known in the design business as “a Gil Hanse”: He’s not only relocated to a far-away place, but he’s taken his family with him. “I’m super excited to be here,” DeVries told me via phone from King Island in Tasmania. “This is an amazing opportunity.” Construction is set to begin any day now, and the course is scheduled to open in the fall of 2014. DeVries says that the track will be “a true links” on “the most dynamic, diverse site” he’s ever seen. It doesn’t sound as though he’s allowing the pressure to create a genuine world-class, destination-worthy venue get to him, however. “There’s always pressure,” he says. “Every project brings its own special opportunities.” The DeVries family moved to King Island last month and expects to stay there through the end of the year.

     After years of discussions and negotiations, Mike Keiser and the state of Oregon are closing in on a land swap that will pave the way for the construction of a Gil Hanse-designed, 27-hole municipal golf complex on property roughly seven miles south of Bandon Dunes. “I think it’ll happen,” says Keiser, the owner of Bandon Dunes. Keiser tells me that he’s reached a preliminary agreement with the state’s governor, the first step in a three-step approval process. Next, the board of state parks must sign off on the agreement. The board has been the hang-up all along, as its members must be assured that there’s an “overwhelming public benefit” in the land swap. In the original proposal, Keiser would have received 210 acres in the Bandon State Natural Area in exchange for 110 acres elsewhere in the BSNA plus 97 acres adjacent to Bullards Beach State Park. Since then, however, Tim Wood, the director of the state’s parks and recreation department, has apparently squeezed a better deal out of Keiser. “I give him credit for milking me along,” says Keiser. “He’s done it brilliantly.” The board isn’t expected to take a vote for several months. Keiser’s target date for construction is the fall of 2014.

     Some legislators in Goa, India want to pull the plug on a controversial Colin Montgomerie-designed golf course in the village of Tiracol. The legislators allege that the state government is “forcibly ousting villagers from their homes” to pave the way for the construction, an accusation that’s sure to give the image of golf in India another black eye. The developer, an entity led by Leading Hotels, Ltd., has managed to acquire the rights to part of the property it needs, but the New York Daily News reports that “a resolute group of over 30 residents has been holding out for the last four years.” This is a familiar story in India, where golf construction is often stymied by difficulties involved in assembling land. Goa’s government isn’t likely to give up on the project, however, because it’s eager to promote tourism, and Montgomerie’s golf course was to be flanked by a Four Seasons hotel.

     In recent years, as the golf business tumbled off its fiscal cliff, we all speculated about how far we would fall before we hit bottom. Today, as the business gradually stabilizes, people are beginning to wonder where exactly we are and where we go from wherever that is. “Will it bounce back up, and at what velocity?” an associate for Pellucid Corporation recently asked. It’s the question on everyone’s mind. All we know for sure is that we have less to build upon and less upside potential. And that, I suppose, leaves us somewhere between a rock and a hard place.

   Most British golfers would love to play a round at Augusta National Golf Club, but there’s a limit to what they’d pay for the privilege. A whopping 87 percent of the more than 2,000 golfers responding to a survey by Today’s Golfer cited Augusta National as being the number-one venue on their bucket lists, but only 24 percent of them would shell out more than £500 ($750) to play it. In fact, the majority of the respondents might be classified as downright stingy. A significant number -- 28 percent -- said they wouldn’t pay more than £200 ($300), and nearly as many -- 27 percent -- would take a pass at any price above £100 ($150).