talking points Is Asia a Road to Nowhere?

When it comes to golf development, Japan has run out of gas, South Korea has stalled, and China is, at least for the time being, stuck in neutral.

That’s the verdict from Brian Costello, Mark Hollinger, and Bob Moore, the principals of JMP Golf Design. The JMP “brand” may not register with most U.S. golfers, but for more than a decade Costello, Hollinger, and Moore have been driving through towns and cities all over Asia and Southeast Asia. They’ve created a dozen courses in Japan, at least a dozen in China, and 10 others in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. They’re also responsible for four in South Korea, including the recently opened 360˚ Country Club in Yeoju, in Gyeonggi Province.

The partners recently shared some of their expertise with Asian Golf Business. Their comments about the state of golf development came in the form of an “interview” that, unfortunately, doesn’t at all sound authentic or spontaneous. My guess is that the answers were written, not spoken.

I can’t determine which architect is doing the talking, but I suppose it really doesn’t matter. Here’s what they had to say:

On Japan: A combination of market saturation and the state of the economy have certainly resulted in very limited demand for new golf in Japan. In fact, many see a further contraction of existing golf courses as a move in the right direction. . . . However, having said that, we also see a strong emerging market for renovation. Aging golf courses in key metropolitan areas and popular resort areas will be ideal candidates for renovation.

On South Korea: It would seem that opportunities for massive growth are definitely over for the short term. . . . There is certainly a correction in the Korean market, but we would not, at this time, characterize it as Japan-like. The fundamentals of the Korean economy are in place, and that economy should sustain a few smart projects that truly provide value and great golf experiences in the private and public sectors.

On China: The golf market will continue to grow, but not nearly at the breakneck pace of the past few years. The central government’s high-end lending controls are now impacting the market severely. Speculative property buyers who propelled the golf course community real estate industry are no longer available in most regions of China. It is now a new and very different environment for golf development, and this will continue at least for the next couple of years. In addition, many of the popular resort areas have been oversaturated with golf projects. It will require some time for all of this to shake out.

On the Philippines: Golf development in the Philippines has been practically non-existent for many years. The Philippines is too rich in resources, population, and in beautiful landscapes for that trend to continue.

On India: India is anybody’s guess, but it is hard not to envision India as a major golf market in the coming decade, as long as the complex issue of land acquisition is addressed.

On Indonesia: Indonesia is a sleeping giant in many respects. It is the world’s fourth most populous country. Its consumer demand is enormous. It is a rising economic power. Having stated that, we do not expect to see another explosion of golf like the one that occurred there in the 1980s.