Vital Signs, november 21, 2014

     Remember when the golf industry set out to increase the number of U.S. golfers to 40 million by 2022? The plan hasn’t gone very well, has it? Since Golf 2.0 was unveiled, the number of U.S. golfers has fallen from roughly 26 million to about 23 million, and it continues to fall. In fact, the program is failing so miserably that it’s completely bummed out Jim Koppenhaver, who’s concluded that our nation won’t get anywhere near 40 million golfers during our lifetimes, even though the sport is as accessible as it’s ever been and as affordable as it’s ever going to be. “We won’t threaten 30 million U.S. golfers again in the near future, let alone any number north of that,” Koppenhaver grumbles in November’s Pellucid Perspective. His reasoning: “The very things that make our sport appealing to the current base are things that are barriers for the larger population.” On this subject, Koppenhaver’s thinking reflects a changing perspective in our business. Not so long ago, we believed we could establish a broad river of golf participation. Today, we’ve resigned ourselves to having a narrow but hopefully deep one. Absent some social or economic miracle, golf is going to be to sports what Van Morrison is to music.

     The European Golf Course Owners Association has run the numbers, and it estimates that by 2020 the number of registered golfers in Europe, currently about 4.3 million, is going to drop by 18.6 percent, to 3.5 million. And that’s really not the worst of it, because as the continent’s golf population shrinks, it’s going to age dramatically. In its Vision 2020 policy paper on the future of the golf industry, the EGCOA reports that last year 56 percent of the registered golfers in five major golf markets -- France, Germany, Sweden, Spain, and the Netherlands -- were over 50 and that 33 percent were over 60. By 2020, the group says, 66 percent will be over 50 and 42 percent will be over 60. It behooves me to note that the EGCOA is making projections based on current trends and that trends can and often do change. That being said, the group’s data pretty much signals the end of all but boutique golf development in Europe, doesn’t it?

     Until 2008, according to a study by McMahon Group, golf was the number-one reason people gave for joining a country club. Since then, however, golf has fallen to something like sixth on the list of attractions that prospective members seek. “They like golf and the golf culture, and probably someone in the family plays golf, but it’s difficult for them to justify country club membership on that basis alone,” McMahon’s president told the Detroit Free Press. “They are looking for more of a lifestyle model.” Talk of “lifestyle models” always frightens me, because it prompts visions of struggling golf communities whose residents love the lifestyle but not the golf itself. Inevitably, there comes a day when people have to choose what matters most to them, and when that day comes, position six is not the place to be.

     Good news for those who believe that the golf industry goes as the housing market goes: The nation’s highest-priced houses are selling faster than any others on the market. In October, sales of houses priced at $1 million or more were up by 16 percent over the number sold in October 2013, and the second best-selling segment consisted of houses priced between $750,000 and $1 million, which were up by 12 percent. “People in the top 10 percent of wealth are really feeling confident now,” the chief economist for the National Association of Realtors told CNBC. If you’re wondering how working-class Americans are doing, sales of houses priced below $100,000 fell by 6 percent.

     Warm weather, nice hotels, and easy airline connections are helping the Dominican Republic cash in on golf tourism. Last year, the nation welcomed 103,000 international travelers who came exclusively to golf, and this year it expects to attract 125,000, an increase of 21 percent. In all, according to figures provided by Property Showrooms, vacationing golfers contributed more than $198 million to the nation’s economy in 2013, and the amount is expected to surpass $297 million in 2016. Do you think Cuba is taking notice?

     Whose is bigger, Greg Norman’s or Donald Trump’s? The correct answer: Trump’s, hands down, presuming that we’re merely talking about who has the biggest golf clubhouse in Dubai. It once appeared that Norman was going to be the Big Daddy, as the so-called Norman Clubhouse at Jumeirah Golf Estates supposedly measures out at 131,000 square feet and is said to be “a destination in its own right.” But though it may dwarf the local competition, it’s going to look puny compared to the 30,000-square-meter building -- a whopping 322,917 square feet -- that’s about to take shape at Trump International Golf Club Dubai. Damac Properties wants the clubhouse at its Trump-branded course to be “the largest of its kind in Dubai,” and -- for the time being, at least -- it’s succeeded. In Dubai, and elsewhere as well, size really does matter.