Vital Signs, january 27, 2017

     Golf participation continues to decrease “at an alarming rate,” says the Pellucid Perspective, but operators of U.S. golf properties are staying afloat because older golfers are playing more often. “In a nutshell,” the publication writes in its January issue, “older, high-frequency golfers are each covering about two of the low-frequency, younger golfers that are not being attracted to the sport.” Here’s some data to bolster the argument: Between 2005 and 2015, the number of U.S. golfers aged 65 to 74 nearly doubled (it now exceeds 3 million), and they play, on average, 33.6 rounds a year. By contrast, every age group among golfers who are 45 and under showed a decline, with the average number of rounds being played in those groups ranging from 12.9 to 17.9. Based on its research and the shrewd use of a calculator, Pellucid predicts that the number of rounds played on U.S. golf courses will remain “relatively stable” over the next decade. After that, presumably, all bets are off. The decrease in participation among the under-45s doesn’t bode well for the future.

     When it comes to golf participation, money really talks. According to Private Club Marketing, the participation rate among people who earn $150,000 or more is “about double” the rate for people who earn between $50,000 and $75,000 and “about five times greater” than the rate for those who earn $30,000 or less. Pause to digest. Now chew on this: Among golfers, the median annual household income is about $96,000. For the average American, it’s about $52,000.

     It’s slightly off-topic, but the temptation is too much to resist: The richest people on the planet – the top One Percent – control half of the world’s wealth, according to Private Club Marketing, while the top 10 percent control 88 percent. If you’re wondering, both groups have significantly improved their fortunes since 2009. Again, pause to digest.

     Myanmar, one of the world’s most persistent human-rights violators, hopes to claim a share of the golf-tourism money that’s flowing into Southeast Asia. The idea is still mostly a pipe dream – to attract golf travelers in significant numbers, Myanmar needs higher-quality golf courses, better roads and infrastructure, classier hotels, and, most importantly, an improved public image – but other nations in the region have proved that such obstacles can be overcome. “I think it’s just a matter of time,” one of the nation’s golf evangelists told Channel News Asia. “We’re seeing it happen in Indonesia and Vietnam and Cambodia, Sri Lanka, even Bangladesh.” When it comes to golf, these days Myanmar has just one true “international-standard” golf course, the Gary Player-designed layout at Pun Hlaing Golf Club in Yangon. But other noteworthy tracks are in the pipeline. Within the next few weeks, a Phil Ryan-redesigned course is scheduled to open at Dagon Golf Club in Yangon, and a Lee Schmidt-designed course is expected to open at Mandalay Myotha Golf Club, in metropolitan Mandalay, this fall. Even as a group, these tracks aren’t likely to lure very many vacationing golfers. On the bright side, however, they might make some of Myanmar’s golf-wary developers more courageous.

     In Japan, optimism about golf’s future is waning. The Economist reports that more than 120 of Japan’s golf courses have closed since 2010, and, citing a comment from a member of a golf-related association, it thinks that 500 others could bite the dust within a decade. The magazine blames these losses on a variety of factors, among them an “aging population,” “disinterest from the next generation,” the sport’s “stuffy image,” “declining demand from companies,” and “steep green fees.” Japan still has more than 2,300 courses, but a chart that accompanies the magazine’s story indicates that the nation has fewer than 8 million golfers today, down from roughly 13 million in 2000. If my calculator is working properly, that’s a decline of 38 percent.

     Those new, bucket-list golf courses on King Island, in Tasmania, have attracted so many traveling golfers that local hotels are having a hard time keeping up with demand. Late last year, the island’s mayor told the Examiner that the existing supply of overnight accommodations is “fully booked for weekends into the foreseeable future.” Needless to say, this is one of those proverbial nice problems to have. To remedy the situation, the local hotel business is in the midst of what’s been described as “a development boom.”

     Speaking of supply and demand, Mars needs women and Cabot Links needs caddies. The neo-classic (or minimalist) mecca in Nova Scotia, now boasting two of Canada’s top-rated golf courses, is looking to hire 100 caddies for the upcoming season. “We were short all [last] summer,” a member of the crew told the Halifax Chronicle-Herald. “Especially in the fall, when students went back to school, there was a bit of a void.” The upshot: The elites of the golf demographic want a 100 percent authentic golf experience, and they’re willing to pay extra for it. One other tidbit about Cabot’s economics: On several days last summer, the resort claims, it turned away 55 to 60 potential players. So it’s fair to ask: How long before Cabot green-lights its third golf course?