Vital Signs, may 3, 2013

     The pace of golf construction in China continues to slow. In 2010, 52 new courses opened in the People’s Republic. The number slipped to 45 in 2011 and fell again last year, to 39, according to figures provided in Forward Management Group’s recently released China Golf Industry Report. The nation’s moratorium on golf construction is partly to blame for the decline, of course, but China Daily suggests that the previous pace of construction was simply unsustainable and notes that “designers are far from convinced that the explosion of golf’s popularity in China is petering out.” And let’s give credit where it’s due: While construction has clearly slowed, China’s golf industry continues to add to its inventory. Forward Management now counts 587 courses in the nation, with more are on the way. Optimism reigns because the moratorium is merely “a supposed ban,” says China Daily, which also hints that determined developers can find loopholes in “the opaqueness of the rules.”

     Will the future of golf development in the world’s second most-populous nation be compromised by a lack of water? Less than two years ago, KPMG’s Golf Advisory Practice predicted that India “may need to build up to 100 new courses to satisfy the demand over the next decade.” But last summer in Delhi, severe water shortages forced hospitals to delay surgeries and shopping malls to shut off their air conditioners. What’s more, last year a British newspaper asked a question that India’s golf developers really can’t answer: “How sustainable are these water-thirsty golf courses based on residential projects?” All this foreshadows an impending battle over water, a battle that I fear India’s golf industry isn’t prepared to fight. When anxious people in hospital beds discover that even well-managed 18-hole golf courses drink, on average, 136,000 gallons of water every day -- water that could be used to sterilize clamps and scalpels -- the construction spigot won’t remain open for long. If our industry ignores this issue, we risk losing a true hot spot for growth. And it needs to be addressed now, before India and other parched nations go so dry that they can no longer swallow the thought of building more golf courses.

     The original version of the preceding post first appeared in the January 2013 issue of the World Edition of the Golf Course Report.

     Data compiled by the Employee Benefits Research Institute indicates that 57 percent of U.S. workers have socked away less than $25,000 for their retirement. (The amount doesn’t include the value of their houses, which may no longer be worth much either.) This number is so low it’s hard to believe. So if you’ve ever wondered why Baby Boomers don’t play as much golf as their forebears in previous generations, maybe it’s because they can’t afford to.

     Don’t fret, but your golf club’s superintendent may be making more money than you are. The average head superintendent in the United States earned $82,573 last year, according to a study by the Golf Course Superintendents Association of America, while the average “certified” superintendent now takes home $98,187.

     Yes, the number of rounds played on U.S. golf courses got a nice, 5.7 percent bump last year. Nonetheless, our nation’s average 18-hole golf course saw just 32,000 rounds in 2012, which the National Golf Foundation says is 20 percent less than it got in the late 1980s.

     Most U.S. golf properties remain reluctant to raise their greens fees, but exactly how price-sensitive are today’s golfers? When the operators of the city of Palatka, Florida’s golf course raised their annual fees, they got a pleasant surprise: They sold more memberships. “We increased membership prices by 10 percent, and the membership increased 35 percent,” one of the course’s managers told the Florida Times-Union. The explanation? Long-overdue upgrades to the neglected course and its clubhouse attracted formerly disenchanted customers, and improved service keeps them coming back. “We found out that our customers are not price-sensitive,” the manager explained. “They’re conditioning-sensitive, and they’ve been coming back since they found out what kind of shape we were in.” All of which leads me to ask a critical question: How well do the nation’s golf courses know their customers?

     It’s easy to understand why most companies in the U.S. golf industry concentrate on the top end of the market: That’s where the money is. And in recent years, more and more money has been flowing upward. Between 2009 and 2011, according to a study by the Pew Research Center, our nation’s upper crust -- the top 7 percent of U.S. households -- increased their average net worth by 28 percent, while everybody else’s net worth fell by 4 percent. “It has been a very good recovery for those at the upper end of the wealth distribution,” one of the study’s authors said to the Washington Post. “But there has been no recovery for the lower 93, which is nearly everybody.” All this is confirmation of an old story: The rich get richer.