Is Kevin Fleming having second thoughts about the golf course he wants to build in Nicaragua?
The Jack Nicklaus-designed track is supposed to be the centerpiece of Seaside Mariana Spa & Golf Resort, which is planned to take shape on a 1.2-mile stretch of beachfront along Nicaragua's Pacific coast, near San Rafael del Sur. Presuming it's built, it would be Nicklaus' first “signature” course in Central America and would unquestionably set the standard for golf development throughout the region.
In a recent interview with International Property Journal, however, Fleming complained that only 15 to 20 percent of Seaside Mariana's potential buyers have been attracted by the golf course. A far larger number -- half of the community's potential buyers, Fleming says -- have been lured by its spa.
"There's more interest in eco-adventure [than golf]," Fleming groused.
This should concern all of us in the golf business. Twenty years ago, when I began writing about golf development, we were told, in gleeful tones, that only about half of the residents in a typical golf community actually played golf. This was, supposedly, evidence of golf's unsurpassed power to spark house sales, even among people who had no interest in the game.
Soon, though, the numbers started to fall. We heard that just a third of the home buyers were golfers, then a quarter.
And now Fleming is telling us that the number has fallen even farther.
How low can it go before no developer in his right mind will build a golf course?
On the face of it, Fleming's hiring of Nicklaus is an absolute no-brainer. Nicklaus is the most famous golf designer on earth, with a list of award-winning projects as long as your arm. Wherever you go on our planet -- Japan, Indonesia, Mexico, Malaysia, or wherever -- people will tell you that the local Nicklaus course is the one you should play. He may charge a king's ransom for his services, but a parade of developers in more than 30 countries will swear that he's worth every penny.
But not in Nicaragua, apparently.
And Fleming isn't the only developer who's questioning the value of "signature" golf these days.
Jim Anthony has inked three of the biggest names in golf design -- Nicklaus, Tom Fazio, and Gary Player -- to design golf courses for his Cliffs communities in North and South Carolina. He was the first U.S. developer to hire Tiger Woods to design a golf course, for Cliffs at High Carolina in suburban Asheville.
Anthony has been selling houses at High Carolina for more than a year. At last count, he'd sold 39.
So where does Anthony stand on the value of "signature" golf today?
He recently admitted that the number of people who buy a house based on its proximity to a golf course is "dwindling."
This is discouraging news for the golf industry in general and for premier golf designers in particular -- not just for Nicklaus but for Fazio and Robert Trent Jones, Jr. and Greg Norman and all the others whose courses anchor many of the world's most luxurious, most desirable golf communities.
Only a few years ago, when it came to selling houses, these designers were money in the bank. Now, due to their prowess as real estate salesmen, they've become victims of their own success.
In a sense, they're all imprisoned by their brands. Nicklaus, for example, can only design one kind of golf course -- an expensive, spectacular course -- because every track he designs will inevitably be compared to the 270 or so he's already designed. Sure, his firm can offer a cheaper alternative -- a "Nicklaus Design" course, say, just as Player can offer a "Black Knight" design -- but, frankly, the downscale alternative doesn't bring much magic to a marketing campaign.
So where do the "brand-name" designers go from here?
And where does golf development go?
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