It's hard to predict the future, but that doesn't stop any of us from trying.
In recent weeks, writers from just about everywhere have been asking golf industry experts to look into their crystal balls and make a forecast about 2010. Here are some of their comments.
-- Doug Carrick, a Canadian golf architect, in Asian Golf Business: "It's not great yet, but at least we're seeing some signs of it turning around."
-- Jack Nicklaus, in an interview with PGA.com: "Overseas is exploding for golf. . . . The game is growing, particularly in China, India, Brazil, Russia -- places that didn't have much golf before. It's going to continue to grow in those markets for a long time."
-- Dave Glod of Tour Edge Golf, in Golfing magazine: "For 2010, we are not anticipating any growth in the game due to the unemployment rate and difficult economy."
-- Teddie O'Keefe, a board member of the New Jersey Golf Course Owners Association, in the Asbury Park Press: "Things are looking up for courses this year. We believe the golf industry is coming out of the recession a little bit earlier than other businesses because there is pent-up demand."
-- Craig Wrench of Washington Holdings (the company that recently bought the St. Regis Monarch Beach resort in Dana Point, California), in the Los Angeles Times: "We're still in a troubled economy, and we need another six to 12 months or maybe 18 months of recovery to be back where we need to be."
-- Tom Shapland of Wadsworth Golf Construction, in Asian Golf Business, comparing 2009 and 2010: "Our projection is that 2010 is going to be worse."
-- Harry Arnett of TaylorMade Golf, in Golfing magazine: "We are extremely positive about the market in 2010. . . . We know it will be some time before the industry gets back to the levels it was at a few years ago. But we think 2010 will be a growth year again for us."
-- Mark Eitelman of Agri-Scape Golf Course Construction, in Asian Golf Business: "I don't think it's going to get much worse."
Monday, April 12, 2010
Friday, April 9, 2010
south korea The End Is Near
South Korea may be seeing a lot of golf construction these days, but, like Japan, it’s effectively been tapped out as a market for future golf development.
That’s the view of David V. Smith, who’s been working on golf projects in South Korea for a decade and is currently managing the development of the 54-hole Sanyosoo resort in Chuncheon.
Smith, who operates through Agoura Hills, California-based Golf Projects International, says that the prices of golf memberships at the clubs on Jeju Island, the nation’s premier golf destination, have fallen by 50 percent over the past 18 months –- evidence, he believes, that developers have already built too many courses there, just as they have in other parts of the nation.
As a result, he predicts, only about 100 additional courses will be built in South Korea.
“For the next two years there will be opportunities in Korea, but that’s it,” he says. “The market is saturated.”
As for the next big thing, Smith is lukewarm on Vietnam and Thailand, where, he says, prospects are limited to resort development, but he’s hot on India, where golf has been played since the 1820s and the middle class is thriving.
“If I were 10 years younger,” he says, “India would be my next stop, no question about it.”
That’s the view of David V. Smith, who’s been working on golf projects in South Korea for a decade and is currently managing the development of the 54-hole Sanyosoo resort in Chuncheon.
Smith, who operates through Agoura Hills, California-based Golf Projects International, says that the prices of golf memberships at the clubs on Jeju Island, the nation’s premier golf destination, have fallen by 50 percent over the past 18 months –- evidence, he believes, that developers have already built too many courses there, just as they have in other parts of the nation.
As a result, he predicts, only about 100 additional courses will be built in South Korea.
“For the next two years there will be opportunities in Korea, but that’s it,” he says. “The market is saturated.”
As for the next big thing, Smith is lukewarm on Vietnam and Thailand, where, he says, prospects are limited to resort development, but he’s hot on India, where golf has been played since the 1820s and the middle class is thriving.
“If I were 10 years younger,” he says, “India would be my next stop, no question about it.”
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
talking points Is the Golf Business Sustainable?
Some of you may know Golf Club Atlas, a web-based forum where just about anything and everything related to golf design is discussed and dissected by a bevy of architects, builders, writers, historians, and assorted hangers-on.
Mike Young, an Athens, Georgia-based designer, recently posted a piece at GCA called "Golf Is No Longer Sustainable as We Know It." This isn't a new topic for Young -- he's been issuing similar wake-up calls for years -- but it's one that resonates today, in light of the recession that's flattened the U.S. golf industry.
I've trimmed Young's post to sharpen his argument, and I've taken the liberty of editing his text a little. (Sorry, Mike. It's the magazine editor in me. I can't resist editing text.) To read Young's post in it entirety, and exactly as he wrote it, visit GolfClubAtlas.com. You might also want to check out Young's website, MYDgolf.com.
Here it is:
The golf industry that we know today has been a false industry since the mid-1980s. Much of this was due to the real estate development business, and many of our golf courses were developed with that in mind and no concern for how we would maintain these golf courses or even justify their existence in the future. . . . We continue to act as if this problem will go away, and we will go right on down our merry path. . . .
When it comes to golf course design and construction, that is an entirely wild wild west. We have thrown so much BS on the unknowing club committees and developers whereby they think the answer to all problems is to spend more money and to always be sure you spent more than a club down the street or the development down the street. But the truth of the matter is that neither the design business or the construction business is a sustainable model within golf itself and for itself. . . .
We can have all of the industry meetings to explain how things will turn in the future, but at some point we have to face the facts. There is no design and construction industry in the United States and will not be for a long time. That is not to say there will not be some work, but it will not be enough to sustain anywhere near the number of people in the business. And it is wrong to continue to act as though there will eventually be work to sustain these people.
Now there is nothing wrong with this, and it's probably a good thing. Think back to the days when so-called golf design was a fledgling business, and you will see that it was usually done by people who were somehow involved with golf on another basis day-to-day. And that's how it will be again. We have blown enough smoke and created enough false plateaus in the last 25 years to do us for the next 50 years.
I have never put a tee in a set of plans, taken a divot from a set of plans, or made a ball mark in a set of plans. The average old owner knows that. It was the committees and developers that wanted something else, and even they only wanted to pay for a huge marketing fee disguised as a design fee. That's all over. The new model is straight from Larry the Cable Guy: "Git ur done."
I am not saying any of this to be adversarial. There will always be exceptions -- private clubs that can afford these conditions and a few resorts -- but the sport of golf throughout the country cannot sustain what we have created, and we can either accept it and do something about it or continue down this path of thinking it'll right itself.
And it will, but it will be in the opposite direction.
Mike Young, an Athens, Georgia-based designer, recently posted a piece at GCA called "Golf Is No Longer Sustainable as We Know It." This isn't a new topic for Young -- he's been issuing similar wake-up calls for years -- but it's one that resonates today, in light of the recession that's flattened the U.S. golf industry.
I've trimmed Young's post to sharpen his argument, and I've taken the liberty of editing his text a little. (Sorry, Mike. It's the magazine editor in me. I can't resist editing text.) To read Young's post in it entirety, and exactly as he wrote it, visit GolfClubAtlas.com. You might also want to check out Young's website, MYDgolf.com.
Here it is:
The golf industry that we know today has been a false industry since the mid-1980s. Much of this was due to the real estate development business, and many of our golf courses were developed with that in mind and no concern for how we would maintain these golf courses or even justify their existence in the future. . . . We continue to act as if this problem will go away, and we will go right on down our merry path. . . .
When it comes to golf course design and construction, that is an entirely wild wild west. We have thrown so much BS on the unknowing club committees and developers whereby they think the answer to all problems is to spend more money and to always be sure you spent more than a club down the street or the development down the street. But the truth of the matter is that neither the design business or the construction business is a sustainable model within golf itself and for itself. . . .
We can have all of the industry meetings to explain how things will turn in the future, but at some point we have to face the facts. There is no design and construction industry in the United States and will not be for a long time. That is not to say there will not be some work, but it will not be enough to sustain anywhere near the number of people in the business. And it is wrong to continue to act as though there will eventually be work to sustain these people.
Now there is nothing wrong with this, and it's probably a good thing. Think back to the days when so-called golf design was a fledgling business, and you will see that it was usually done by people who were somehow involved with golf on another basis day-to-day. And that's how it will be again. We have blown enough smoke and created enough false plateaus in the last 25 years to do us for the next 50 years.
I have never put a tee in a set of plans, taken a divot from a set of plans, or made a ball mark in a set of plans. The average old owner knows that. It was the committees and developers that wanted something else, and even they only wanted to pay for a huge marketing fee disguised as a design fee. That's all over. The new model is straight from Larry the Cable Guy: "Git ur done."
I am not saying any of this to be adversarial. There will always be exceptions -- private clubs that can afford these conditions and a few resorts -- but the sport of golf throughout the country cannot sustain what we have created, and we can either accept it and do something about it or continue down this path of thinking it'll right itself.
And it will, but it will be in the opposite direction.
Monday, April 5, 2010
mexico Cabo Cortes Golf Club, Baja California Sur
Looking for “the ultimate vacation experience of Mexico”?
Well, Spanish and U.S. interests are teaming up to build it along the Sea of Cortez, in the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
It’s called Cabo Cortes, and it’ll spread over 9,400 acres roughly 40 miles northwest of Los Cabos International Airport. According to its promotional materials, Cabo Cortes will offer vacationers an experience that “will be comparable or better than that of the best resort communities in North America,” with “second homes equal to anything the world can offer.”
Clearly, the people behind Cabo Cortes know which buttons to push. Now if they can just find some home buyers and a boatload of money to fund the construction.
Cabo Cortes is being co-developed by Hansa Baja Investments, an entity led by Hansa Urbana Group and Goodman Real Estate. When it’s done, it’ll have more than 13,000 housing units, several hotels (more than 3,000 total rooms), something like 2.5 million square feet of office and retail space, marinas, beach clubs, spas, a private “jet port,” schools, medical facilities, and three to five golf courses.
Is that what the publicity people mean when they say Cabo Cortes will have “a deep connection to the essential part of Mexico”?
Two of the community’s golf courses will be of the “signature” variety. The first one will be designed by Robert Trent Jones, Jr.
Goodman Real Estate is a Seattle, Washington-based firm that owns and/or manages more than 15,000 apartments and 2.5 million square feet of office and retail space in the United States and Canada. One of its subsidiaries, Triad Development, owns Hiddenbrook Golf Course in Vallejo, California.
Hansa Urbana is based in Alicante, Spain and has offices in Madrid, Barcelona, and five other Spanish cities. It developed Alicante Golf Club in Alicante and Novo Carthago Beach & Golf Resort in suburban Cartagena, Spain. The latter has a pair of 18-hole, Jones-designed golf courses.
CaboCortes.com, GoodmanRE.com
Well, Spanish and U.S. interests are teaming up to build it along the Sea of Cortez, in the southern tip of Baja California Sur.
It’s called Cabo Cortes, and it’ll spread over 9,400 acres roughly 40 miles northwest of Los Cabos International Airport. According to its promotional materials, Cabo Cortes will offer vacationers an experience that “will be comparable or better than that of the best resort communities in North America,” with “second homes equal to anything the world can offer.”
Clearly, the people behind Cabo Cortes know which buttons to push. Now if they can just find some home buyers and a boatload of money to fund the construction.
Cabo Cortes is being co-developed by Hansa Baja Investments, an entity led by Hansa Urbana Group and Goodman Real Estate. When it’s done, it’ll have more than 13,000 housing units, several hotels (more than 3,000 total rooms), something like 2.5 million square feet of office and retail space, marinas, beach clubs, spas, a private “jet port,” schools, medical facilities, and three to five golf courses.
Is that what the publicity people mean when they say Cabo Cortes will have “a deep connection to the essential part of Mexico”?
Two of the community’s golf courses will be of the “signature” variety. The first one will be designed by Robert Trent Jones, Jr.
Goodman Real Estate is a Seattle, Washington-based firm that owns and/or manages more than 15,000 apartments and 2.5 million square feet of office and retail space in the United States and Canada. One of its subsidiaries, Triad Development, owns Hiddenbrook Golf Course in Vallejo, California.
Hansa Urbana is based in Alicante, Spain and has offices in Madrid, Barcelona, and five other Spanish cities. It developed Alicante Golf Club in Alicante and Novo Carthago Beach & Golf Resort in suburban Cartagena, Spain. The latter has a pair of 18-hole, Jones-designed golf courses.
CaboCortes.com, GoodmanRE.com
Friday, April 2, 2010
argentina El Desafio Golf Club
This year, one of the richest people in the United States plans to start building the first Greg Norman-designed golf course in South America.
Norman’s 18-hole course will serve as a drawing card for El Desafio, a 2,500-acre resort community that’s taking shape in San Martin de los Andes, in the Patagonia region of southern Argentina. At build-out, El Desafio will have a bunch of houses, a hotel with the obligatory spa, an equestrian center, a pair of professional polo fields, and other attractions favored by the well-heeled. More than half of the property, which offers views of the Andes Mountains, will be preserved as open space.
El Desafio is being developed by Hicks Trans American Partners LLC, an entity created by Tom Hicks, the principal of Dallas, Texas-based Hicks Holdings LLC and a long-time member of the Forbes 400. Hicks Holdings has its fingers in a lot of investment pies -– satellite television, steelmaking, real estate development –- but it’s perhaps best known for its sports franchises, which include the Dallas Stars of the National Hockey League and the Liverpool Football Club in the English Premier League. It also owns baseball’s Texas Rangers, although the team is in the process of being sold, reportedly for a price just north of $500 million.
Hicks Trans American Partners, which is based in Buenos Aires, is the controlling shareholder of Argentina’s top pet-food company, but it’s mostly a real estate developer. It's developing El Desafio as a 50-50 joint venture with Terra Patagonia, an Argentine developer. The partners cleared much of the golf-course site in 2009, and they expect to begin moving dirt later this year.
Norman has two projects in the works in Brazil (in Sao Paulo and Fortim), but the course at El Desafio is expected to come out of the ground first.
ElDesafioMountainResort.com, HicksHoldings.com
Norman’s 18-hole course will serve as a drawing card for El Desafio, a 2,500-acre resort community that’s taking shape in San Martin de los Andes, in the Patagonia region of southern Argentina. At build-out, El Desafio will have a bunch of houses, a hotel with the obligatory spa, an equestrian center, a pair of professional polo fields, and other attractions favored by the well-heeled. More than half of the property, which offers views of the Andes Mountains, will be preserved as open space.
El Desafio is being developed by Hicks Trans American Partners LLC, an entity created by Tom Hicks, the principal of Dallas, Texas-based Hicks Holdings LLC and a long-time member of the Forbes 400. Hicks Holdings has its fingers in a lot of investment pies -– satellite television, steelmaking, real estate development –- but it’s perhaps best known for its sports franchises, which include the Dallas Stars of the National Hockey League and the Liverpool Football Club in the English Premier League. It also owns baseball’s Texas Rangers, although the team is in the process of being sold, reportedly for a price just north of $500 million.
Hicks Trans American Partners, which is based in Buenos Aires, is the controlling shareholder of Argentina’s top pet-food company, but it’s mostly a real estate developer. It's developing El Desafio as a 50-50 joint venture with Terra Patagonia, an Argentine developer. The partners cleared much of the golf-course site in 2009, and they expect to begin moving dirt later this year.
Norman has two projects in the works in Brazil (in Sao Paulo and Fortim), but the course at El Desafio is expected to come out of the ground first.
ElDesafioMountainResort.com, HicksHoldings.com
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